Reserve income versus rate cuts
Circle says more USDC can expand reserves and non-reserve revenue. Management is guiding to a 40% multi-year USDC CAGR, and Bernstein reported $USDC supply rose about $1.7 billion in a week. These sources point to usage growth that can soften rate dependence.
The Signal notes that 95% of Circle's revenue is still interest on reserves and says the reserve return rate fell 66 basis points year over. The Signal also says Circle is priced as a rate-sensitive wrapper on reserve income. The Motley Fool says reserve income accounted for 96% of Circle's total revenue in 2025.
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